SEVERE WEATHER SYNOPSIS…JAN. 10, 2013…ISSUED 10:15 A.M. EST…PHFC

Good day everyone!

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC), Norman, OK. has issued a SLIGHT risk for Severe Thunderstorms over parts of the Central Gulf Coast region, and over parts of AR and the far/lower TN/OH valley region.

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

12Z soundings from around the risk areas indicated lapse rates to be moderate to weak.  However, the nature of the wind fields at various levels, along with ample moisture and associated outflow boundary as noted in the outlook, will have the potential to produce a squall line with embedded rotation and LEWPS.  The main threat appears to be damaging thunderstorm winds.  However given a unidirectional flow on the SE flank of the system, some tornadic activity cannot be ruled out.  In fact, some tornado warnings have already been issued earlier this morning.  As it comes to late afternoon/early evening, the threat should diminish for the Gulf Coast as this system moves EWD, however a secondary threat may be likely over portions of the lower Ohio and Tennessee Valley region late this afternoon into early evening.

Residents in the risk areas are urged to monitor NOAA Weather Radio, and their local NWS offices for updated information.  NWS Statements, advisories and warnings may be found by clicking on your state on the NWS Hazards map.

SPC CONVECTIVE WATCHES DISPLAY

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS

NWS HAZARDS AND WARNINGS MAP

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOPS

Be safe and have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS 
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)
CoCoRaHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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5 Responses to SEVERE WEATHER SYNOPSIS…JAN. 10, 2013…ISSUED 10:15 A.M. EST…PHFC

  1. dellamom says:

    Greg, it’s almost at your door. Stay safe.

  2. dellamom says:

    Thanks, LT. And DKMac, my generator is ready to go too — runs on natural gas or gasoline, but I hope we won’t need it. I work in Madisonville and have homes in Mandeville and Chalmette, so I am watching closely. We are smack dab in the lovely red convective rectangle Storm has drawn for us. My houses aren’t in danger of flooding, but getting to them can be a problem in high water situations. Prayers to those north of us who seem to be getting it worse than we are. Thanks Storm for helping my peace of mind that comes from knowing what’s out there.

  3. DKMac says:

    The line of severe Tstorms is just to the West of us on the northshore of Lake Ponchatrain right now. but no tornado warnings out, YET. We got nearly 3 inches of rain overnight Tuesday and into Wednesday morning, so the ground is really saturated, and the risk of trees being pushed over by any severe winds is high. 2013 is starting off very wet. I’ve got the genny fueled up and ready to go out on my covered back porch just in case…

  4. Thanks Storm. I echo LT and hope all is well down there. It looks like SPC put the threat close enough to STL…I’ll pass this on. Thanks again Storm!!

  5. originallt says:

    Thanks Storm, I hope Dellamom and Greg in Mobile will be careful today. Looks like there is some rough weather all ready out there.

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