SEVERE WEATHER SYNOPSIS…JAN. 08, 2013…ISSUED 10:20 A.M. EST…PHFC

Good day everyone!

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has indicated a SLIGHT risk of Severe Thunderstorms  over parts of SRN and ERN TX.

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

Based on information contained in the outlook, and my analysis of 12Z Upper Air Soundings around the risk area, weak lapse rates were observed from the surface up to near the 870 mb level, with a noted weak inversion.  Cloud cover over certain portions of the area should keep this scenario in place early this morning to around noon.  Based on the inversion, inland storms may remain elevated until this afternoon.  Given the moisture feed from the SSW, any heating could allow these to become surface based, which would produce the risk for isolated tornadoes.  Closer to the coast, thermodynamics are such, that   a slightly better chance could be the order, which could produce some waterspouts and isolated tornadoes.  However, the overall grandeur of the situation calls for a fairly weak and isolated event, given the configuration of the attendant upper low (positively tilted).

I am at the college today, but am leaving linked maps for watch, warning, and hazard data, as well as Doppler Radar (interactive).

SPC CONVECTIVE WATCH DISPLAY

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS

NWS WATCH, WARNING, AND HAZARDS MAP (CLICK ON YOUR STATE)

DOPPLER RADAR LOOPS

The SPC indicates a SLIGHT risk of Severe Thunderstorms across SERN TX / LOWER MS VALLEY in the day 2 convective outlook

SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

I will post more on this tomorrow, as it becomes the Day 1 Outlook.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS 
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)
CoCoRaHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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6 Responses to SEVERE WEATHER SYNOPSIS…JAN. 08, 2013…ISSUED 10:20 A.M. EST…PHFC

  1. dellamom says:

    We are bracing for bad weather here today. I stayed on the Northshore last night because the two main bridges were fogged in. State Police caravaning drivers across the Causeway Bridge — probably a nightmare as all the commuters to the southshore backed up trying to get home. My commute is from the southshore and I use the twin spans through Slidell. Hopefully I’ll be able to get back to the southshore tonight, but if not I will just stay on this side another night.

  2. dellamom says:

    Sorry about your sinus infection, Storm. I have the world’s worst sinuses and can truly commiserate. We are in a week-long string of really rainy days here, but the temps are not expected to drop. Currently 70ish days/50ish nights. My EE husband finally has a computer up and running at my house, and i just got a Kindle Fire HD for Christmas. so hopefully I won’t be out of touch like I have been. Regards and best wishes to all on this site for a happy, healthy, safe 2013.

  3. stefanie says:

    Thanks Storm. We seem to be in a rain-less zone here. So far we’ve had little rain with more to my north and east. As usual. Have a nice day. 🙂

  4. originallt says:

    Thanks Storm, hope you are feeling better. Very calm up here. Mostly sunny highs 45-50. Only rain we might have will be Friday. But mild for the next week or so. You alluded to that yesterday, mentioning the strengthening ridge in the Western Atlantic. Thanks again, be well.

  5. Thanks Storm. It looks like the Severe threat moved East into IAH…I’ll pass this along. Stay safe everyone down there!!

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