Good day everyone!
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has indicated a SLIGHT risk of Severe Thunderstorms over parts of SRN and ERN TX.
Based on information contained in the outlook, and my analysis of 12Z Upper Air Soundings around the risk area, weak lapse rates were observed from the surface up to near the 870 mb level, with a noted weak inversion. Cloud cover over certain portions of the area should keep this scenario in place early this morning to around noon. Based on the inversion, inland storms may remain elevated until this afternoon. Given the moisture feed from the SSW, any heating could allow these to become surface based, which would produce the risk for isolated tornadoes. Closer to the coast, thermodynamics are such, that a slightly better chance could be the order, which could produce some waterspouts and isolated tornadoes. However, the overall grandeur of the situation calls for a fairly weak and isolated event, given the configuration of the attendant upper low (positively tilted).
I am at the college today, but am leaving linked maps for watch, warning, and hazard data, as well as Doppler Radar (interactive).
The SPC indicates a SLIGHT risk of Severe Thunderstorms across SERN TX / LOWER MS VALLEY in the day 2 convective outlook
I will post more on this tomorrow, as it becomes the Day 1 Outlook.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)