BRIEF WINTER WEATHER UPDATE SYNOPSIS…DEC. 28, 2012…ISSUED 12:10 P.M. EST…PHFC

Good day everyone!

Finally a break in the severe weather.  The SPC does not indicate any severe weather threat over the next 5 days.

Elsewhere, forecast minimum temperatures look to remain freezing to below freezing over much of the U.S. for the remainder of the next 7-10 days.  Although on the other side, maximum daytime temperatures are trending much milder over the majority of the U.S.

ETA MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST

GFSX MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST

ETA MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST

GFSX MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST

We may see the milder temps hang on until around day 5-7 in the period, when colder air appears to intrude into the Northeastern and New England States, based on computer model output involving the next low pressure area to slide off the east coast, showing a trof in the 500 mb level over the aforementioned areas..  However, I am going to monitor this to see what exactly may pan out, as  the AO is forecast to remain in the positive side of the scale for the next 7-10 days, which should keep any arctic air suppressed.

ECMWF 1000-500 MB THICKNESS (COURTESY OF UNISYS WEATHER)

GFSX

GFS SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION 120 HOURS
06zgfssnow120 (1)

ARCTIC OSCILLATION INDEX

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS 
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)
CoCoRaHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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8 Responses to BRIEF WINTER WEATHER UPDATE SYNOPSIS…DEC. 28, 2012…ISSUED 12:10 P.M. EST…PHFC

  1. originallt says:

    A happy and healthy to Storm W. and all the bloggers on Storm’s site!

  2. originallt says:

    Snow just about over for me, and we did receive about 3″. The storm itself is really “winding -up” and should give the Boston area quite a snowfall. Would not be surprised if some areas just west of Boston get over a foot. My Baro. is at its lowest, 29.49″ but that should about do it, as the storm is intensifying but pulling of to the North East pretty fast. It will get real windy here over night and all day Sunday, with gusts reaching 50mph. or so. It will stay cold with highs tomorrow 30-35 and lows by Monday morning near 20F. I know for you Monty thats not that bad but it will be our coldest week of the year so far, coming up. Everybody have a great rest of the weekend, LT.

  3. originallt says:

    Hi Storm, Monty and all, Getting snow up here, it started at 12noon, its falling at a light to moderate clip. We have close to 1″ on the ground. We should get 3-5″ by the time it stops this evening, around 8pm. Not much wind, Baro. is 29.65″ and falling slowly. Temp. is 32F and falling slowly. Was 34F just before the snow started.

  4. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. Hey LT. We have been below freezing for a #@!%&^*& week!! Sometimes…well below freezing. I hope the AO stays positive until June…wishful thinking I’m sure. I’d definitely trade AO for a NAO negative tilt. Boy…do we need the moisture. I read NWS/NOAA J/F/M ENSO forecast for DEN CWA and it doesn’t look promising…just as you predicted. As LT said…stay safe down there Storm…LT you do the same up there!! Take care.

  5. originallt says:

    Looking at the radar, looks like you got some pretty good showers or T.showers in the Tampa area Storm, about 4-6pm. on Sat. were they bad ? Also radar is showing some pretty strong thunder storms or heavy rain showers in a N to S line going thru LA. and Alabama at this time. Could the “SPC” boys have made a mistake? Stay safe down there.

  6. originallt says:

    Thanks Storm. Waiting up here for another storm, though not as intense as the last one. We should however, get more snow out of this one in SW CT. Should start around noon Sat. lasting about 12 hours or so. We could wind up with 3-5 inches if it all falls into place. I’ll report in and tell you what I received LT

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