SEVERE WEATHER / WINTER WEATHER SYNOPSIS…DEC. 19, 2012…ISSUED 11:30 A.M. EST…PHFC

Good day everyone!

The Storm Prediction Center, Norman OK. has issued a SLIGHT risk of Severe Thunderstorms over portions of MO TO ARKLATEX AND MS DELTA REGIONS

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

SPC DAY 1 TORNADO PROBABILITY

SPC DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WIND PROBABILITY

Analysis of the 12Z soundings from around the risk area indicate some weak lapse rates, and an inversion layer from the surface to the 925 mb level.    Upon analysis of the current run from the SREF model from the SPC forecast tools page, various severe weather parameter values indicate MUCAPE values of only around 500-700 j/Kg at the most.  0-1 km helicity values are forecast to each between 400-500 over the risk area…this is forecast to shape up later this afternoon into early evening.  Any significant daytime heating would increase the destabilization of the atmosphere.  This information, combined with information contained in the outlook text leads me to believe the strongest threat for a severe incident, or any tornadic activity should remain within the targeted Tornado Probability area, possibly slightly further west to include a small portion of eastern OK.

I will probably be on and off today…please utilize the SPC and NWS Hazards maps for the latest real time information on Watch areas, Warnings for your area, and Statements and Advisories from your local NWS office.  It’s easy!, just click on your state on the NWS Hazards Map.  Residents under the risk area should monitor NOAA Weather Radio if they own one.

SPC CURRENT WATCHES DISPLAY

SPC CURRENT MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS DISPLAY

NWS HAZARDS MAP

INTELLICAST DOPPLER RADAR LOOP

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP

The SPC has also issued a SLIGHT risk for Severe Thunderstorms in the Day 2 Convective Outlook.

SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

The current low that is moving toward the NE responsible for the risk, will be deepening quickly, and will bring snow and winter precipitation to the Great Lakes area, and portions of PA., NY, and Northeast.  Folks to the SE of the Great Lakes should expect some Lake Effects Snow, and winter precipitation in general as moisture comes in on the backside of this low, with extremely cold temperatures.

As indicated in the following maps, There may be a period of Blizzard Conditions over the Great Lakes region given the wind velocity of around 35-40 mph in small areas.

GFS 10M WIND VELOCITIES
06zgfspmsl10mwinds072

Based on the GFS 06Z run, the 32F line extends pretty well south over the n ext 72 hours. However it appears a quick rebound is in order, as a high pressure system is forecast to progresses eastward over the Gulf Coast area, bring in warmer temperatures on its western periphery, and an increase in moisture.

GFS WIND AND TEMPERATURE MAP
06zgfspmsl10mwinds2mtemps072

06zgfspmsl10mwinds2mtemps090

GFS 120 HOUR ACCUMULATED SNOWFALL

ETA 84 HOUR ACCUMULATED SNOWFALL

GFSX MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS 
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)
CoCoRaHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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6 Responses to SEVERE WEATHER / WINTER WEATHER SYNOPSIS…DEC. 19, 2012…ISSUED 11:30 A.M. EST…PHFC

  1. originallt says:

    I hope Dellamom and Gregg in Mobile are safe down there this morning. Some real bad weather in the South today.

  2. Jel Training says:

    Hi Storm:
    Thanks for the update. We are supposed to be traveling this weekend, but your post may have us sticking closer to home. We’re in PA and supposed to travel north which is of course always worse! Thanks again for keeping us updated! ~Janie :o)

  3. Thanks Storm. I have some friends traveling to Elgin, NE…a little West of OMA. Thank God it’s not until Saturday. We have ongoing Winter Weather Advisories and Blizzard Warnings. There looks to be something around Christmas…GFS/ECMWF keep it opened…for now. Cold temps are a sure bet. Thanks again Storm!!

  4. originallt says:

    Thank you Storm, looks like from Nebraska to the middle and upper Great Lakes will have one potent winter storm, and there will be quite alot of of “lake effect” snow with this system as it whips by.

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