SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK / WINTER WEATHER DISCUSSION…DEC. 18, 2012…ISSUED 11:00 A.M. EST…PHFC

Good day everyone!

Models continue to trend eastward on the upcoming low over the next 2 days, which in turn, will keep the high winds and seas offshore.

The Arctic Oscillation is still trending negative, which will allow for some Arctic air to intrude somewhat southward over the western one third of the country.  Upon analysis of the minimum temperature forecast, and moderation of the ensemble forecast for the AO, I am not expecting this to be a blast of very cold air…in fact, it may even be more inline with a very cold cP airmass, especially for the SEUS and Eastern Seaboard states.

ARCTIC OSCILLATION ENSEMBLE FORECAST

GFSX MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FORECAST

Any snowfall still looks to be confined pretty well north over eastern portions of the U.S., and the heaviest accumulations being around the Great Lakes region, and westward.

ETA 84 HOUR ACCUMULATED SNOWFALL


GFS 120 HOUR ACCUMULATED SNOWFALL

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Norman, OK. does not indicate any severe weather risk for today.  SPC does however indicate an issuance for a SLIGHT risk of severe thunderstorms in the Day 2 and Day 3 Convective Outlooks.

SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK (LINKED)

SPC DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK (LINKED)

INTELLICAST AND NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOPS (LINKED)

Upon performing further analysis of surface, 500 mb, and upper air maps, I am still not totally willing to rule out a probable chance for severe weather threat to shift northward on Thursday, possibly around or south of the Ohio Valley Region.  The area will be under the exit region of a jetstreak, and a fairly strong 500 mb flow.  The forecast surface features indicate WAA to the east of the low which will develop and move NEWD, and CAA on the western side of the front.  This may not pan out, but looking at the information, I believe this to be a fair assumption, and will monitor this further for any addition to the Outlooks.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS 
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)
CoCoRaHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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3 Responses to SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK / WINTER WEATHER DISCUSSION…DEC. 18, 2012…ISSUED 11:00 A.M. EST…PHFC

  1. originallt says:

    Thanks Storm, “enjoy” your snow and cold weather out there, Monty!

  2. Thanks Storm. Yeah…the AO looks to have an effect on our Temps in DEN. The high tomorrow at KDEN will struggle to get to 20F…with 3 to 6 inches of snow. Winter Storm/Blizzard Watches are out for most of E Colorado. Thanks again Storm and everyone have a great day!!

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