HURRICANE SANDY EVENING UPDATE…OCT. 24, 2012…ISSUED 7:05 P.M. EDT…PHFC

Good evening!

Sandy made landfall near Kingston Jamaica around 3:00 p.m. today.  She is now emerging off the north coast of Jamaica.  As of the 5:00 p.m. EDT advisory, the following information was available, and is posted on the tracking map:

GLOBAL TRACKS HURRICANE SANDY TRACKING MAP

SANDY SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

Sandy has been moving in a basically north direction today, and based on current and forecast steering maps, this motion should continue until Sandy reaches and crosses Cuba.  Thereafter, the shift to the left I have been calling for is noted in the NHC updated forecast track, and I concur with this.  I base this on the forecast steering layers maps, and the 18Z Dynamic Model Guidance.

18Z DYNAMIC GUIDANCE

Sandy is now heading toward a break in the ridge to her north, as is seen in the current steering layer map, which shows the ridge has finally weakened.  As this ridge continues to progress toward the east, the trof mentioned in previous forecast synopses will approach, and begin to turn her more toward the NE, then more to the NNE near the end of the 120 hour forecast period.  Soon thereafter, the majority of the Global Models still indicate a track back toward the NNW to NW as Sandy phases with the deep trof.  The GFS in the 12Z run had come around to this solution, and is now back to taking Sandy out to sea.  Based on the forecast steering maps, and agreement of the other Global Models in bring the storm back toward the NEUS, I have to discount the GFS solution at the moment. The trof in question will basically “split”, and the piece of energy over the water should “capture” the storm.  Looking at the forecast steering, the flow is pretty much out of the SE to NW due to a blocking high centered east of Newfoundland.

CURRENT STEERING LAYER MAP

GLOBAL MODELS OUTPUT

 

WAVEWATCH 3 MODEL OUTPUT

STEERING FLOW AT 120 HOURS

Sandy is currently over very warm water, and the upper level anticyclone that has been to her WSW appears to be slowly progressing north, closer to the storm, and is providing an excellent outflow channel to her north and east.

The recent GFS shear forecast still indicates upper level winds to become more conducive as Sandy approaches Cuba, and for about 24-30 hours after she emerges back over the water.  Sandy should strengthen more prior to landfall over Cuba, and could still undergo some form of brief R.I.

Based on this, I agree with the NHC intensity forecast and idea of her maintaining the strength in the forecast, however at her forward speed, she has at least 6-7 hours over warm water.  At around 96 hours out, Sandy may begin to interact with the trof, however, the Global Models indicate a strengthening subtropical system.  This will most likely occur due to baroclinic processes.  I cannot rule out the possibility of this bombing out as shown, given the closer approach to the U.S. and Gulfstream.

Given the shift in track, the following watches and warnings are now in effect:

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM OCEAN REEF TO SEBASTIAN INLET.

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA TO FLAGLER BEACH.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE
CUBA...HOLGUIN...AND GUANTANAMO
* THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
* THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI
* FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM OCEAN REEF TO SEBASTIAN INLET

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
* FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET TO FLAGLER BEACH
* FLORIDA UPPER KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY
* FLORIDA BAY

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
TO 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA....IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 TO 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.6 WEST. SANDY IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF SANDY WILL MOVE OVER
PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA OVERNIGHT...MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...AND MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SANDY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS SANDY MOVES
OVER EASTERN CUBA...WITH SOME RESTRENGTHENING EXPECTED AFTER SANDY
MOVES INTO THE BAHAMAS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM. KINGSTON JAMAICA RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND
OF 44 MPH...70 KM/H.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
FROM JAMAICA IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES. 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN PORTIONS OF
JAMAICA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND ARE EXPECTED TO REACH EASTERN
CUBA THIS EVENING. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS LATE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

RAINFALL...SANDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6
TO 12 INCHES ACROSS JAMAICA...HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND
EASTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE.
THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE
BAHAMAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES. RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS INTO
SOUTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE
TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY
RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE
GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

JAMAICA...1 TO 3 FT
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA 3 TO 5 FT
CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...5 TO 8 FT
FLORIDA COAST WITHIN WARNING AREA...1 TO 2 FT

SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE
AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. 
FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

SANDY NWS LOCAL HURRICANE STATEMENTS
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/index_hls3.shtml

Residents under the Hurricane Warning and Watch areas should be completing preparations as quickly as possible.

Residents of the NE U.S., New England, and Tidewater area should closely monitor Sandy for any new developments.

I will have another update in the a.m.

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / TROPICAL FORECASTER
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS 
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)
CoCoRaHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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14 Responses to HURRICANE SANDY EVENING UPDATE…OCT. 24, 2012…ISSUED 7:05 P.M. EDT…PHFC

  1. Cheryl Sikes says:

    Thanks for the updates and the informative conversation! I thought we were out of the woods for this year – that’s what I get for thinking! Weather is quickly deteriorating here in West Palm this morning. Schools close early today and are closed tomorrow. Traffic coming down to WPB this morning was very light so I think a lot of people are preparing today – lesson learned form Isaac when we were underprepared and the tropical storm caught everyone off guard. I was listening to WIRK while driving in this morning and they were taking a poll – it seams many people decided to keep their kids home all day today vs 1/2 day of classes. Makes sense to me, especially since it is only 9:30 and the rain bands and wind are increasing already. Be back later – waiting on your next update Storm!

  2. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. I’m sending your synopsis out to everybody on my list and I’m sure they will pass it on to anyone in the affected areas. You’re the perfect person to call this potentially history making storm!! I am really enjoying the conversations between you and Bonedog…I can learn a lot from two experts…and I need all of the help I can get!! Wow LT…this has got to have you guys up in the NEUS getting a little nervous. My prayers are with you and all. Thanks again Storm and Bonedog…God Bless all of you!!

    • uglyemt says:

      No problem Monty. Anything to help. I try to keep it in laymans terms as much as possible. Any questions feel free to ask. Being in the NE I and stay on top of the weather up here.

      Best regards
      Bonedog

      • Monty says:

        Yeah Bonedog…I bet you will be glued to your computer over the next 4-5 days!! I live in Colorado but was born in New Orleans and raised in San Antonio. When I was very young…I had the pleasure of going through Hurricane Camille. I don’t remember much…and was obviously well inland when She hit. I was told many stories and have had a passion for weather from a very young age. I should have gone after a degree in Meteorology…but I didn’t. I have learned a lot through the NWS WFO DEN?BOU and have learned a hell of a lot with Storm. I have studied WX termonologies…read many Forecast Discussions…asked many questions and have taken some Met-Ed courses…they have helped a lot. I’m getting there. Anything else I can learn will help greatly. Storm…and now you…will continue the process. I thank you both!!

        • palmharborforecastcenter says:

          You’re welcome, Monty. Yeah, bonedog and I have been sharing info together for I would guess a couple of years.

          • Monty says:

            Definitely the…oh what the hell…I’ll add a pun…”DYNAMICAL” Duo!! Statistical Duo sounded real stupid. All kidding aside…I’m greatful to have you both as teachers!!

            • uglyemt says:

              LOL. Dynamical Duo. LOL. Storm is Batman to my Robin. Hands Down. I have insight to the dynamics of the NE during Nor’easters so this time it will be collaborative which is actually rare. Can’t wait from a meteorological stand point. As Storm said been years sharing info. Seems the EC is a great place for that. Watch during winter if you like Nor’easters. I get a little more active 8-)

              • uglyemt says:

                Again Monty ask any questions you want. I am glad to help. Nothing is stupid or dumb. We all want to learn :)

                • Monty says:

                  Thanks Bonedog!! I’m sure there will be many questions ahead. I have to deal with Winter Storms in the OCT-APR period and Severe WX in the APR-SEP timeframe as well. I try to keep my people up to date in and around DEN with the latest. However…the list also includes…COS…MAF…SJT…LBB…IAH…SAT…STL…ORD…MSY…CHS…BWI…and others. So…having you two as additional Winter/Spring firepower sure helps. Just so you know…I only send out WX info by the NWS or other trusted sites…including PHFC. A lot of people love Storms forecasts and I’m sure they will love yours as well. I look forward to this Winter knowing I have some guys that can cover my back. God Bless Storm/Bonedog!!

      • originallt says:

        Hi Bonedog, what part of the Northeast are you in? I live in Stamford CT. (Southwestern part of the state.)

        • uglyemt says:

          Really LT?!? You have forgoten me so soon LOL
          NJ. NW Passaic County. My backyard is Orange County NY. I’ve been away awhile I know. It’s all good 8-) Lt stock up the fuel. We can be getting rocked soon. Too many leaves still up. Think Irene and the Oct snow last year combined

          • originallt says:

            Thanks “Dog”! Hey, I’m lucky I remember how to use the computer every time I turn it on. The “memory” is not as good as it used to be ya know!! Yeah, if we do feel the effects, I know I’ll be out power for a few days!

    • Bonedog says:

      OK well Sandy decided to surprise! Hell even the NHC siad it in their 5am discussion that Sandy was probably a major at landfall when the other side of the eye came ashore! This is going to change things. A stronger storm will make things a little different as she runs northbound. Im thinking a later transition now and, depending on what happens throughout the day today, might actually make impact as a true hurricane instead of a Nor’Easter.
      Just going by the overnight stuff right now looks like I will be adjusting things a little. Still haven’t went through everything so nothing really to add other then keep an eye for changes and start preparing… bring in the furniture, check for dead limbs, gas for the genny if necessary, that sort of stuff.
      I’ll be back later to add my two cents hehehe :D
      Best Regards,
      Bonedog

  3. originallt says:

    Thank you again Storm. I don’t remember any scenario quite like this one. It will be real interesting around here by Friday or Saturday, especially if the models keep a Middle Atlantic or North East rendezvous for Sandy.

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