SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL UPDATE…MAY 26, 2012…ISSUED 6:00 P.M. EDT
Beryl is now moving slowly toward the SW. The following information was available from the NHC in the 5:00 p.m. EDT advisory:
5:00 PM EDT Sat May 26
Location: 31.5°N 76.6°W
Max sustained: 45 mph
Moving: SW at 6 mph
Min pressure: 999 mb / 29.50 in
Based on analysis the current steering layers forecast maps, I concur with the NHC track, however I am a little left and prefer a track left of the NHC and just right of the TVCC.
18Z DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
Current satellite loop imagery indicates Beryl may be trying to undergo the transition to tropical, as thunderstorm activity appears to be trying to “ring” the center as well as more moisture wrapping around, and cutting the drier air. However, Beryl will have a short window to accomplish this, and erode the upper trof, before moving over cooler shelf water within the next 18-24 hours. So, the slim possibility still exists that she may become tropical prior to making landfall.
BERYL SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY
Based on current satellite motion, it appears Beryl may be slowing slightly, and could begin a more WSW motion late tonight.
NATL SATELLITE DVORAK LOOP (Notice the ridge over the eastern U.S. steering Beryl)
Based on the wind shear forecast earlier today, I agree with the NHC intensity scheme in the forecast discussion. The only way I see this going above 50 mph, is if Beryl can quickly transition to tropical, and take advantage of the narrow 27C swath of water it is approaching, before hitting the cooler shelf waters tomorrow.
CURRENT STEERING LEVEL
NHC FORECAST DISCUSSION
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT2+shtml/262055.shtml
NHC TRACK AND WARNING MAP
After landfall, it is possible for the remnants of Beryl to be curved toward the NE in a few days, and possible regeneration is not out of the question at the moment.
I will try to have another update tomorrow afternoon.
SEVERE WEATHER RISK: SLIGHT
FIRE WEATHER RISK: EXTREME
TROPICAL STORM FORMATION: BERYL
COASTAL STORM DEVELOPMENT: LOW
Good morning all!
INVEST 94L was upgraded to STS BERYL as of 11:00 p.m. last night. The following information was available from the NHC in the 8:00 a.m. Intermediate Advisory:
8:00 AM EDT Sat May 26
Location: 32.0°N 76.0°W
Max sustained: 45 mph
Moving: WSW at 5 mph
Min pressure: 1001 mb / 29.56 in
Current satellite imagery indicates Beryl has an exposed center of circulation, and dry air wrapping around the center on the eastern portion of the storm.
BERYL SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY (VARIOUS CHANNELS)
RGB
WATER VAPOR
LONG RANGE DOPPLER RADAR LOOP MOREHEAD CITY NC
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=MHX&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes
INTERACTIVE DOPPLER RADAR MAP
http://www.intellicast.com/Local/WxMap.aspx?location=&weather=hdRadarSmoothPaletteA
The current wind shear map from CIMSS shows upper level winds over the small area where Beryl is located, are only about 10 knots, and the shear tendency map shows shear has decreased dramatically over the past 24 hours. Analysis of the 06Z wind shear forecast map from the GFS indicates wind shear to relax even further by late this afternoon into early this evening. Beryl will also be over 26-27C sst’s within the next 18-24 hours. These factors could allow the storm to begin mixing out some of the dry air, provided convection can be maintained near and around the center. Given these factors, and based on information contained in the NHC 5:00 a.m. forecast discussion, the possibility does exist she could begin to erode the upper low, and become tropical prior to landfall, albeit very briefly. Based on my analysis, I have to agree with the NHC forecast intensity scheme, unless Beryl can overcome the dry air intrusion quickly.
CIMSS CURRENT WIND SHEAR and SHEAR TENDENCY MAP
GFS WIND SHEAR FORECAST VALID 00z 27 MAY 2012
Currently, Beryl is moving toward the WSW, and I expect this motion to continue through most of today. A ridge of high pressure is still forecast to build north of the storm, and this will give her the turn toward the west. Based on the current steering layers forecast maps from the PSU e-WALL site, and water vapor loop imagery, I agree with the NHC forecast track, and I prefer the southern edge of the Dynamic Model Guidance package, and Beryl should come ashore close to Jacksonville FL. late Sun., possibly very early Monday.
12Z DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings extend from portions of SC, SWD to midway down the FL. east coast.
NHC TRACK, and WATCH/WARNING MAP
The following link contains Local Hurricane Statements regarding these Watches and Warnings.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/index_hls2.shtml
Residents under the Tropical Storm Warning area should read these statements carefully, and implement action set forth in these statements, and monitor NOAA Weather radio if equipped.
I will try to have an update later this afternoon, or evening.
The Storm Prediction Center has issued a SLIGHT risk of Severe Thunderstorms from portions of the NRN PLAINS and UPPER MIDWEST INTO SRN HIGH PLAINS...and this afternoon and evening across parts of ERN WY…
SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK (linked)
The Storm Prediction Center has issued an EXTREME Fire Weather risk area for W-CNTRL AND NWRN NM…and a CRITICAL risk area for ERN AZ…SERN UT…WRN/S-CNTRL CO…WRN/CNTRL NM…
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
Have a fantastic weekend!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST/TROPICAL FORECASTER
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)
