TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, AND TROPICAL ATLANTIC…JULY 15, 2013…ISSUED 12:45 P.M. EDT…PHFC

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Good day everyone!

The tropics remain quiet as of analysis time.

GOMEX / CARIBBEAN / CATL SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

There are various ULL’s scattered around, but nothing with a surface reflection.

There is an area currently in the BOC, trying to acquire a surface feature, however I am not looking for any development, based on the current and forecast wind shear products.

Based on the current run of the GFS Zonal Shear forecast, the GOMEX and especially the Caribbean should be shut down for the next 2 weeks.  After researching a few things briefly this morning, it is not all that unusual in regards to lack of activity.  We are still in the period climatologically of little activity for the tropics.

HURRICANE CLIMATOLOGY
seasonal-frequency-unsmoothed-small

06Z GFS ZONAL SHEAR FORECAST (OUT TO 384 HOURS)

Another wave is getting ready to exit the African coast, and I will monitor its progress, albeit I am not looking for development from this right now.

EUMETSAT 

I am awaiting completion of the 12Z GFS run to see if it picks up on the feature shown in the 06Z run.  The 06Z run indicates in about 10 days, a wave exiting Africa, with a Tropical Storm developing just off the south coast of Puerto Rico by July 31st.  I cannot rule this out as of yet, until I can analyze subsequent runs of the Global Models, in particular the GFS due to its almost extremely accurate tropical cyclogenesis forecasting thus far.  This surface feature has, or should have upper air support based on the Zonal Shear forecast from the GFS, albeit this can change rather quickly.  However, chances of this development occurring, are statistically better as we enter August.

06Z GFS MODEL RUN
06zgfs500mbHGHTPMSLtropical384

Not too much change as far as the state of the tropics.  The MDR appears to be slowly warming once more, and this trend could continue, if the NAO Ensemble forecast is correct.

CURRENT SST ANOMALY MAP

NAO ENSEMBLE FORECAST

The current state of the MJO as revealed by the MJO Multivariate Index shows a very weak, to non existent signal in Octant 4.

CURRENT MJO MULTIVARIATE INDEX

Given all the variables I have mentioned, it does seem plausible not to have another “true” tropical development until months end, or beginning of August (kinda supported by the GFS MJO forecast).

CPC GFS MJO FORECAST

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected through the next 48 hours.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS 
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)
CoCoRaHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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2 Responses to TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, AND TROPICAL ATLANTIC…JULY 15, 2013…ISSUED 12:45 P.M. EDT…PHFC

  1. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. Enjoy your rest…here comes August.

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