COASTAL/OFFSHORE STORM SYNOPSIS…FEB. 15, 2013…ISSUED 1:50 P.M. EST…PHFC

Good day everyone!

It appears most of the computer models are in fair agreement on this system coming up over the weekend! The only outlier at the moment is the ECMWF, which is further east with the system.

GFS

CMC GGEM

ECMWF

Based on the MSLP indicated in the model output, albeit this system should remain a little further offshore, I will not rule out some blizzard conditions for the extreme eastern portion of ares in New England and the NE. Current projected isobar spacing indicates a pretty hefty wind field, and winds of near 50-60 mph near the coast may not be ruled out. Conditions offshore are going to much worse and particularly dangerous for boaters and shipping. Sustained winds near the vicinity of 40N;55W COULD attain hurricane force, and seas could range 30-40 ft.

NWW3 WIND FORECAST

NWW3 WAVE HEIGHTS

Power outages could occur once again, with the strongest of winds closer to the coastal areas. Temperatures should pretty much plummet after the passage of this system, with freezing temps down into the northern 1/3 of the Florida Peninsula.

GFSX MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST

Have a great weekend. I’ll try to be on this weekend to post real time info on the system.

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)
CoCoRaHS OBSERVER

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I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.

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2 Responses to COASTAL/OFFSHORE STORM SYNOPSIS…FEB. 15, 2013…ISSUED 1:50 P.M. EST…PHFC

originallt says:

February 15, 2013 at 4:10 pm

Thanks Storm, looks like it will be a little rough out there. We leave Balt. Harbor at 4pm on Sat. then travel SSE down the Chessapeak Bay for about 175 miles till we reach the Virginia border and out to sea. Probably will leave Stamford in snow at 6am on Sat, but I don’t think it will be sticking to the roads, it made it up to the lower 50′s here and in NJ. Will try to check in on board with the ship’s supplied internet(If not too expensive!).

PortABeachBum says:

February 15, 2013 at 3:38 pm

Looks like the Coastal Bend, TX is going to luck out for another weekend! Thanks, Storm.