SEVERE COASTAL / WINTER STORM DEVELOPMENT SYNOPSIS…WIDEST DISSEMINATION REQUESTED…FEB. 08, 2013…ISSUED 11:20 A.M. EST…PHFC

Good day everyone!

The Storm Prediction Center has indicate a SLIGHT risk for Severe Thunderstorms in the Day 2 and Day 3 Convective Outlooks.  Each outlook will be addressed in the forecast as each becomes the Day 1 Outlook.

SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK (LINKED)

SPC DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK (LINKED)

Elsewhere, an area of low pressure has just exited the CONUS into the Atlantic coastline.  This will phase with a northern low within the next 18-24 hours.  The result will be a powerful winter storm developing along the coastal areas of New England and the Northeastern States.  The trajectory for this will pretty much be a steady NE motion.  TWC in their infinite wisdom has named the NEMO.

Current satellite imagery shows the system beginning to deepen as I am typing.

EASTERN SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

Based on Global and Regional models, this will continue to deepen, possibly to sub 980…to 970 MB by the time it reaches near Nova Scotia.

GFS

ECMWF

NAM

For the U.S. east coast, analysis of the current WAVEWATCH model output, and based on isobar spacing, residents along the eastern seaboard, from around Rhode Island, northward, could very well see sustained wind speeds of 60-65 mph along the coastal regions, and I’m not willing at this time to rule out possible hurricane force winds.

The WAVEWATCH model indicates that waves will attain heights of around 18-21 feet in the Gulf of Maine, with an area just outside the Gulf of Maine attaining sea heights of around 27-30 feet SE of the Gulf.

WAVEWATCH MODEL OUTPUT

The following are snowfall estimates from the GFS and the ETA models

GFS 120 HOUR

NAM 84 HOUR

You may follow rain, snow, and ice, track the storm with an interactive map, obtain buoy data, and check any warnings and statements for your area with the following links.

INTELLICAST DOPPLER RADAR (RAIN, SNOW, ICE)

INTELLICAST STORM TRACKER (INTERACTIVE)
http://www.intellicast.com/Local/WxMap.aspx

NATIONAL DATA BUOY CENTER

NWS HAZARDS AND WARNING MAP

Based on the information contained in the models, this office advises residents along the coastal areas from Cape Cod, northward that you may want to make preparations as if preparing for the recent Superstorm Sandy.  Residents in theses areas, and inland should brace for blizzard conditions where snowfall will occur.  Residents can also expect power outages, downed trees, and beach erosion as well as coastal flooding at the time of high tide.

PLEASE do not think of this as just another snowstorm.

Stay safe, and have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS 
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)
CoCoRaHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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7 Responses to SEVERE COASTAL / WINTER STORM DEVELOPMENT SYNOPSIS…WIDEST DISSEMINATION REQUESTED…FEB. 08, 2013…ISSUED 11:20 A.M. EST…PHFC

  1. originallt says:

    Storm up-date here in Sw CT. Well, I zeroed in pretty well in my predicted storm totals, I said about 13″ and thats about what we got here, 13-15″ in Stamford CT. BUT, just 20-30 miles to my EAST totals were much higher. Storm, New Haven received over 30″! Hamden CT. got 34″ . There are many other cities and towns that received crazy amounts. Same for central and Eastern Long Island. And of course up into Boston, totals approaching 3FEET! Truly an epic storm for most of central , southern and eastern New England, all the way the Maine coast. Many power outages due to snow and high winds, over 1/2 million homes and businesses. Windy here now, out of the NW, 20-30mph, with gusts still over 45mph. Temp. is 29F, the sun is coming out. The Barometer got down to 29.62 at it’a lowest here, now is 29.94 rising rapidly. I think the storm itself got down to about 974mb. That’s it for now. LT

  2. originallt says:

    Thank you Storm, as usual!. I’ve been getting snow since about 7:20 this morning, I have now about 3″. Temp. has been holding between 31-32F all day. While I have snow , NYC has been in the rain all day, up to 1/2 hour ago. Should really start to get bad tonight, winds 30-40mph, WHG, and heavy snow. My snow totals I think will be more along the lines of the NAM 84 hour model you provided. We’ll see. Yesterday I predicted about 13″ for my area. I’ll report in later or Sat. morning–if I have power!

    • originallt says:

      Snow up-date as of 10:20pm I have 8″ of snow, snow is falling at light to moderate intensity. I am just missing by 50 miles or so off to my East, tremendous snow rates as “banding” has set up over areas like New Haven Ct and further East. They are getting “insane” snow rates, of 3-5″ PER HOUR! It should keep snowing here for another 8 hours or so. So I just may reach my forecasted number of 13″ ! I’ll check in Sat. am with the final totals.

  3. Thanks Storm. I echo Dellamom…your forecasts are invaluable!! I hope you’re ready LT and everyone else up there as well. The farthest NE my gang goes is BWI…which looks to miss the action. Thanks again Storm and everyone please stay safe!!

  4. dellamom says:

    Thanks, Storm. I have passed it on, as I know others will also do. I hope you appreciate the difference you make as well as the rest of us appreciate you. Here, the weekend looks to be okay for Mardi Gras festivities, but Monday and Tuesday (Lundi Gras and Mardi Gras) are projected at 70% rain. I don’t know what the windspeed is projected to be, however. With high winds, the floats can’t roll, but they can roll in some rain. Most non-float participants (bands, horse riders, dance groups) do not participate in anything harder than sprinkles because of uniform damage and footing problems on the white/yellow stripes on the streets. Prayers for those in harm’s way.

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