SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK...DISTURBED WEATHER UPDATE...APRIL 30, 2012...ISSUED 10:15 A.M. EDT

SEVERE WEATHER RISK: SLIGHT
FIRE WEATHER RISK: NONE
TROPICAL STORM FORMATION: 0%
COASTAL STORM DEVELOPMENT: LOW

Good morning!

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a SLIGHT risk of Severe Thunderstorms over parts of the CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS…and across portions of the MID MS AND OH VALLEYS…

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

SPC DAY 1 TORNADO OUTLOOK

Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.  Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 – EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point

SPC DAY 1 WIND OUTLOOK

Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.  Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point 

SPC DAY 1 HAIL OUTLOOK

Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.  Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point

Based on soundings from 12Z, and analysis of some severe parameter indices, the most probable area for severe weather is within the hatched area of the hail outlook map.  Albeit this is the most probable area, a couple of the severe parameter indices suggest there could be a possible slight shift eastward later on in the early evening hours.  Tornadic activity will most likely be limited to the hatched area of the hail outlook, however I cannot rule out a slight shift east near evening.  This mornings soundings reveal the highest potential this morning to be around the AMA area.

Residents in the risk areas should monitor local news stations, local NWS Statements and advisories, and NOAA Weather Radio for updates to the severe threat.  Please visit this site often during the day for automatic updates to severe weather information.

SPC CURRENT CONVECTIVE WATCH DISPLAY

SPC CURRENT MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS DISPLAY

NWS WATCH, WARNING, and ADVISORY DISPLAY

INTELLICAST DOPPLER RADAR DISPLAY

INTELLICAST INTERACTIVE RADAR PAGE
 http://www.intellicast.com/Local/WxMap.aspx?location=USLA0338&weather=hdRadarSmoothPaletteA

NWS DOPPLER RADAR MOSAIC

The Storm Prediction Center has indicated a SLIGHT risk of Severe Thunderstorms in the Day 2 Outlook from a portion of the CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES…

SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

I will monitor this area closely tomorrow afternoon, as CAPE Values are forecast to range from 1500 to 2000 j/kg over the upper MS Valley, and to near 3000 j/kg over the central plains.

The Storm Prediction Center has indicate a SLIGHT risk for Severe Thunderstorms in the Day 3 Outlook from a portion of the CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES…

SPC DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

TROPICAL WEATHER SECTION

An area of disturbed weather, associated with a mid to upper level trof, and a surface trof of lower pressure still persists over the FL Peninsula and Western ATL.  The surface trof is still located in the Florida Straits, and has remained fairly stationary.  Based on the current steering layers forecast maps, the surface trof should begin to slowly move WNW later today, then NW toward the central GOMEX. Based on the current wind shear forecast and model consensus, I am not expecting any further development from this, and this should dissipate over the central GOMEX in a few days.  Most of the weather associated with this area, is mainly to the east and NE of the surface feature.  As the trof moves toward the WNW, it should enhance the precipitation chances for the central FL. area over the next 48 hours.

GOMEX SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

Have a great day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST/TROPICAL FORECASTER
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS 
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)

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