SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK…DISTURBED WEATHER UPDATE…APRIL 30, 2012…ISSUED 10:15 A.M. EDT

SEVERE WEATHER RISK: SLIGHT
FIRE WEATHER RISK: NONE
TROPICAL STORM FORMATION: 0%
COASTAL STORM DEVELOPMENT: LOW

Good morning!

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a SLIGHT risk of Severe Thunderstorms over parts of the CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS…and across portions of the MID MS AND OH VALLEYS…

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

SPC DAY 1 TORNADO OUTLOOK

Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.  Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 – EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point

SPC DAY 1 WIND OUTLOOK

Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.  Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point 

SPC DAY 1 HAIL OUTLOOK

Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.  Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point

Based on soundings from 12Z, and analysis of some severe parameter indices, the most probable area for severe weather is within the hatched area of the hail outlook map.  Albeit this is the most probable area, a couple of the severe parameter indices suggest there could be a possible slight shift eastward later on in the early evening hours.  Tornadic activity will most likely be limited to the hatched area of the hail outlook, however I cannot rule out a slight shift east near evening.  This mornings soundings reveal the highest potential this morning to be around the AMA area.

Residents in the risk areas should monitor local news stations, local NWS Statements and advisories, and NOAA Weather Radio for updates to the severe threat.  Please visit this site often during the day for automatic updates to severe weather information.

SPC CURRENT CONVECTIVE WATCH DISPLAY

SPC CURRENT MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS DISPLAY

NWS WATCH, WARNING, and ADVISORY DISPLAY

INTELLICAST DOPPLER RADAR DISPLAY

INTELLICAST INTERACTIVE RADAR PAGE
 http://www.intellicast.com/Local/WxMap.aspx?location=USLA0338&weather=hdRadarSmoothPaletteA

NWS DOPPLER RADAR MOSAIC

The Storm Prediction Center has indicated a SLIGHT risk of Severe Thunderstorms in the Day 2 Outlook from a portion of the CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES…

SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

I will monitor this area closely tomorrow afternoon, as CAPE Values are forecast to range from 1500 to 2000 j/kg over the upper MS Valley, and to near 3000 j/kg over the central plains.

The Storm Prediction Center has indicate a SLIGHT risk for Severe Thunderstorms in the Day 3 Outlook from a portion of the CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES…

SPC DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

TROPICAL WEATHER SECTION

An area of disturbed weather, associated with a mid to upper level trof, and a surface trof of lower pressure still persists over the FL Peninsula and Western ATL.  The surface trof is still located in the Florida Straits, and has remained fairly stationary.  Based on the current steering layers forecast maps, the surface trof should begin to slowly move WNW later today, then NW toward the central GOMEX. Based on the current wind shear forecast and model consensus, I am not expecting any further development from this, and this should dissipate over the central GOMEX in a few days.  Most of the weather associated with this area, is mainly to the east and NE of the surface feature.  As the trof moves toward the WNW, it should enhance the precipitation chances for the central FL. area over the next 48 hours.

GOMEX SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

Have a great day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST/TROPICAL FORECASTER
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS 
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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9 Responses to SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK…DISTURBED WEATHER UPDATE…APRIL 30, 2012…ISSUED 10:15 A.M. EDT

  1. ho77yw00d says:

    Thanks Storm!!! Hope you has a good weekend and all is well!!! Hey “LT” I’m glad your wife is doing better and your trip went well and WOW her aunt has lived a long life!!! (I think I read it was her aunt) but now days to live that long is a true blessing!! My mother came down this weekend to Fort Myers from Tampa and had a good visit. I haven’t seen her in awhile but glad all is well…”D”

  2. Thanks Storm. As LT said…it looks like you nailed it again!! Have a great day Storm…LT and everyone!!

  3. originallt says:

    Thanks Storm. That area over SE Florida and off shore doesn’t look as impressive today as it did yesterday. You hit it right on the head!

  4. teammc01 says:

    thank you, StormW

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