SEVERE WEATHER FOREAST SYNOPSIS…APR. 15, 2014…ISSUED 10:15 A.M. EDT…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER

Good day everyone!

The threat for Severe Weather continues this morning for the SEUS, up through the Tidewater area.  The Storm Prediction Center has issued a SLIGHT risk for Severe Thunderstorms today for N FL AND SE GA…and ACROSS ERN NC AND SE VA…

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

Based on analysis of various atmospheric parameters, the main threat today should be damaging straight line thunderstorm winds, and hail.  However, given the wind profiles in the lower to mid levels, isolated, embedded tornadoes cannot be ruled out.  Any tornadic activity should be closer toward the weaker end of the scale, as based on early morning computer model runs, the forecast shows weaker parameters concerning tornadoes.  ANY sufficient daytime heating could however up the ante.

It appears the BEST probability for more active weather into this afternoon, will be the immediate SEUS area, where CAPE values are forecast to be the highest.

CAPE: n meteorology, convective available potential energy (CAPE),[1] sometimes, simply, available potential energy (APE), is the amount of energy a parcel of air would have if lifted a certain distance vertically through the atmosphere. CAPE is effectively the positive buoyancy of an air parcel and is an indicator of atmospheric instability, which makes it very valuable in predicting severe weather. It is a form of fluid instability found in thermally stratified atmospheres in which a colder fluid overlies a warmer one. As explained below, when an air mass is unstable, the element of the air mass that is displaced upwards is accelerated by the pressure differential between the displaced air and the ambient air at the (higher) altitude to which it was displaced. This usually creates vertically developed clouds from convection, due to the rising motion, which can eventually lead to thunderstorms. It could also be created in other phenomenon, such as a cold front. Even if the air is cooler on the surface, there is still warmer air in the mid-levels, that can rise into the upper-levels. However, if there is not enough water vapor present, there is no ability for condensation, thus storms, clouds, and rain will not form.

FORECAST CAPE FROM F5 DATA

GFS
f5 gfs.cape

NAM
f5 nam.cape

RAP
f5 rap.cape

The following graphics are linked to their respective sites for you to click on to obtain the latest up to date severe weather information.

SPC CONVECTIVE WATCH DISPLAY

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS DISPLAY

NWS HAZARDS, WATCHES, AND WARNINGS DISPLAY…CLICK ON YOUR AREA OF INTEREST

INTELLICAST NWS DOPPLER RADAR ANIMATION

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)

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