TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED SEP. 22, 2014…10:45 A.M. EDT…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER

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Good day everyone!

WELCOME TO THE FIRST DAY OF AUTUMN!

The low that developed off the Tidewater area early yesterday morning has raced NNEWD, and is north of Nova Scotia this morning.

EASTERN U.S. SATELLITE LOOP

Showers and thunderstorm activity remains over the eastern portion of the GOMEX this morning in association with a stationary front and trof axis across the Florida peninsula that extends into the Gulf..  Satellite loop imagery indicates some broad cyclonic turning, north of the convection.  Current steering shows that  the steering flow is weak at the moment, and this area of weather should remain quasi-stationary for most of today.  Analysis of the current forecast steering layers maps from the PSU e-WALL site, valid for 12Z this morning, indicate steering should increase over the next 24 hours, and this area may move toward the ENE, across the Florida peninsula.

GOMEX SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

NWS DOPPLER RADAR (CLICK FOR TAMPA BAY AREA LOOP)

Analysis of the current wind shear maps indicate upper level winds are non conducive for development, and are forecast to remain unfavorable for development over the next 72 hours.  I will continue to monitor this area as long as it remains stationary in the Gulf, and for any significant changes to the pattern over the next 72-96 hours.

An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorm activity approaching the Lesser Antilles is associated with a tropical wave.  Upper level winds are not favorable for development, and are forecast to remain non conducive over the next 4-5 days.

CARIBBEAN SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

Elsewhere, I am monitoring 2 areas of disturbed weather over the central and eastern Atlantic within the monsoon trof.  A broad turning in the in the wind field of the monsoon trof is noted extending from 45W, east to around 35W.  The second appears to be associated with a wave axis, on the southern end of the axis near 12N;29W.

CATL SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

Upper level winds are currently marginal over the entire area, however I will be monitoring these areas as the current shear forecast indicates wind shear values to weaken to very favorable levels during the next 72-96 hours. Albeit not optimal as far as an upper level clockwise flow, winds may relax enough for vertical motion to occur.  In fact, at 132 hours, which is around 5 days out, wind shear values over the majority of the MDR and a portion of the SE GOMEX, and northern Bahamas are forecast to be at very favorable levels of less than 6 m/s (13.4 mph)

GFS WIND SHEAR FORECAST 132 HOURS

I will continue to monitor these areas for any signs of slow development over the next 4-5 days.

Global models have really backed off on development over the GOMEX within the next 5-7 days.  The only model indicating anything at all is the GFS with a very weak, broad low over the GOMEX.  Analysis again this morning of 500 mb height anomalies still shows rising heights over the North American Continent, and although models do not indicate anything, I will still monitor the GOMEX during this time just in case.

The GFS however is intent on development down in the south-central Caribbean in about 2 weeks, developing a depression by day 15-16 SW of Jamaica.  Could this occur?  Yes.  Could it be another GFS ghost storm?  Yes.  I will be monitoring further runs, and other modeling to see if when the time comes closer toward the 7-10 day mark, if other global modeling shows the same solution.

GFS
GFS1

GFS2

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 72-96 hours.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)

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