SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK…FEB. 23, 2012…ISSUED 10:25 A.M. EST

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT: SLIGHT
FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK: CRITICAL
TROPICAL STORM FORMATION: LOW (0%)
COASTAL STORM DEVELOPMENT: LOW

Good morning everyone!

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC), Norman, OK. has issued a SLIGHT risk area of severe thunderstorms OVER MUCH OF THE OH AND TN VALLEYS…

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

Based on the information contained in the outlook, questionable return moisture values (fancy term for moisture being brought in from the Gulf on the backside of high pressure or…is the dewpoint going to be high enough) and Diabatic heating (fancy term for daytime heating) are the only factors that precluded the SPC form elevating the risk area to MODERATE.  Looking at the thermodynamic values  in the outlook, the situation is such, that any daytime heating could change the status to a Moderate risk.

Based on my analysis of upper air maps and vorticity, I am targeting the area on the northern portion of the risk area today, possibly even slightly outside the risk area as shown in the following map:

Residents in the risk area should monitor local media for breaking weather news, local NWS office statements, and NOAA Weather Radio.  Please visit my site often for map updates with updates to real time information by refreshing the page and clicking on the maps of interest.

SPC CURRENT CONVECTIVE WATCHES

SPC CURRENT MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS

NWS WATCH, WARNING, AND ADVISORY DISPLAY

DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY

The SPC has also indicated a SLIGHT risk of severe thunderstorms in the current Day 2 Outlook.

SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

SPC has indicated a CRITICAL Fire Weather Area for W AND W-CNTRL TX…S-CNTRL AND SERN NM…

SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK

I will be out of the office until late this afternoon, and will try to check on things for a possible update if needed on the severe weather outlook.

Have a great day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST/TROPICAL FORECASTER
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS 
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK…ISSUED FEB. 22, 2012…10:00 A.M. EST

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT: SLIGHT
FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK: NONE
TROPICAL STORM FORMATION: LOW (0%)
COASTAL STORM DEVELOPMENT: LOW

Good morning everyone!

There have been some changes regarding the Severe Weather Threat over the next 72 hours.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC), Norman, OK. has issued a SLIGHT risk of severe thunderstorms ACROSS MUCH OF THE TN VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS…

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

A shortwave trof is currently over the TN Valley region, and will continue to quickly push eastward, as another upper trof moves in from the Central Plains region. Given the lack of some certain thermodynamics, the main threat from this first upper trof should be limited to hail and damaging straight line thunderstorm winds.

Based on the information in the outlook regarding the thermodynamic profile from SPC, the aforementioned approaching upper trof will present conditions a little more thermodynamically favorable for possible Tornadic activity.

Upon analyzing surface and upper air maps this morning, I agree with the SLIGHT risk outline as to where the greatest potential rests for severe weather.  Based on my analysis of the current forecast Jetstream pattern and associated Jetstreaks, the most likely area to have the greater chance within the risk area, in my opinion, is within the circled area:

Residents within the risk area should monitor local media and NWS products, and monitor NOAA Weather Radio, as well as this site for real time updated maps.

SPC CURRENT MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS

SPC CURRENT CONVECTIVE WATCHES

NWS WATCH, WARNING AND ADVISORIES DISPLAY

INTERACTIVE DOPPLER RADAR

The SPC has also issued a SLIGHT risk for severe thunderstorms in the Day 2 and Day 3 Outlooks.  Based on analysis with regards to the potential significant event mentioned in yesterdays forecast, there have been some changes in the model runs overnight.  Given the lack of some thermodynamics that were forecast yesterday, the significant risk has been deleted.  These risk areas will be addressed as each one moves into the Day 1 Outlook Category.

SPC DAY 2 AND DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

Should time permit…after these weather risks have cleared, I will attempt to perform more analysis as to where any next severe weather threat could develop.

Have a fantastic day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST/TROPICAL FORECASTER
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS 
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ANALYSIS…PROBABLE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE EVENT…ISSUED FEB. 21, 2012…10:25 A.M. EST

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT: NONE
FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK: CRITICAL
TROPICAL STORM FORMATION: LOW (0%)
COASTAL STORM DEVELOPMENT: LOW

Good morning everyone!

Please keep in mind, maps are linked to their respective sites, in order for you to retrieve up to date information by refreshing this page, and then clicking on your map of interest.

I am going to post my map from yesterday, which outlined where I thought severe weather may occur by Thurs/Fri. timeframe.  Would appreciate feedback on how this compares with the SPC DAY 3 outlook, as they had not indicated severe weather in their 4-8 day outlook yesterday.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC), Norman, OK. does not indicate any severe weather threat within the DAY 1 and DAY 2 Outlooks.

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

SPC CURRENT MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS

SPC CURRENT CONVECTIVE WATCHES

NWS HAZARDS AND WARNINGS DISPLAY

SPC has issued a SLIGHT risk for severe thunderstorms in the DAY3 Outlook.  SPC has also indicated in the current 3 DAY Outlook for the Southeastern states, A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXIST THURSDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  Albeit, I do not have time for an analysis on this this morning, there are times when SPC indicates a significant event, they have a tendency to raise the threat level.  As this area becomes the DAY 2 and DAY 1 outlook, I will be analyzing various parameters.

SPC DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe weather within 25 miles of a point.

SPC has also indicated a threat of significant severe storms for DAY 4 in the 4-8 Day Convective Outlook, for ERN PORTIONS OF THE SERN STATES FROM NRN FL…GA INTO THE CAROLINAS AND THE DELMARVA REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH AND ATTENDANT STRENGTHENING KINEMATIC FIELDS WITHIN MOIST WARM SECTOR.

SPC DAY 4 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

Again, severe weather takes precedence on this site, so I will forgo the posting of the winter weather products.

Should the thermodynamics occur as forecast, residents within the SLIGHT risk area, especially any hatched area, should pay particular close attention throughout that day, and closely monitor local media and NWS offices, and if equipped, are URGED TO MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO!  You may also receive up to date, real time information as stated earlier, by visiting my site frequently.

I will try to be on as much as possible during this if my busy schedule this week allows it.

SPC CURRENT DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK

Have a great day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST/TROPICAL FORECASTER
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)

SEVERE AND COASTAL WEATHER ANALYSIS…FEB. 20, 2012…ISSUED 10:30 A.M. EST

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT: TSTM
FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK: CRITICAL
TROPICAL STORM FORMATION: LOW (0%)
COASTAL STORM DEVELOPMENT: LOW

Good morning everyone!

Given that the pattern appears to remain pretty close the same as it has been, maybe a few brief changes, and after much thought,  I have decided to exclude winter weather in the forecasts, and will begin to focus attention on severe weather and coastal storm development.  This will make the forecasts shorter, however the same maps will be posted and linked, so you may continue to receive updated real time information concerning severe weather, along with the link for computer snowfall output and winter storm tracks, minimum nighttime temperatures, and Doppler radar.  As Hurricane season is not too far off, this will allow me to free up time to research various material I have been wanting to read and study on various topics and forecast items for tropical meteorology, so I may further my knowledge for the upcoming season.  If I can free up enough time, it will also allow me to go over thing to possibly put out forecast severe weather, vice analyzing current day events.

If this may be an inconvenience for anyone, please feel free to contact me here.  As always, should you require a personal forecast for your specific area, contact me as well.  For those who receive my updates via their email, and other client sites…In the event I do not post an update, this means I may not have had time to update all client sites and email. However, please bookmark my site, as I generally post a new forecast daily, and you may visit for any weather updates.

The SPC has not indicated any severe weather over the next 3 days.

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK

SPC CURRENT MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS

SPC CURRENT CONVECTIVE WATCHES

NWS HAZARDS AND WARNINGS DISPLAY

INTERACTIVE DOPPLER RADAR

SNOWSTORM TRACKS, TOTALS, AND PROBABILITIES

COMPUTER SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION OUTPUT
http://wintercast.tripod.com/id14.html

NAM MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST

GFSX MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST

Upon analysis of computer model data, I believe the next best chance of severe weather could occur late Thu into Fri. over the SEUS area.  This is always subject to change, as changes occur in the atmosphere this far out.

I do not anticipate any coastal storm development over the next 72 hours, aside from the one in progress.

Have a pleasant day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST/TROPICAL FORECASTER
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ANALYSIS…FEB. 18, 2012…ISSUED 9:40 A.M. EST

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT: SLIGHT
FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK:  NONE
TROPICAL STORM FORMATION: LOW (0%)
COASTAL STORM DEVELOPMENT: LOW

Good morning everyone!

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Norman, OK. has issued a SLIGHT risk for severe thunderstorms from SE TX into the Central Gulf Coast states.

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

The SPC has issued a SLIGHT risk of severe thunderstorms from portions of ERN SC…SRN GA…through NRN and CNTL FL. in the Day 2 Convective Outlook.

SPC DAY2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

Based on analysis of the strongest forecast precipitation areas, position of the Jetstream and Jetstreak, and 850 mb vorticity charts, concerning the DAY 1 Outlook, I have targeted the areas in the following map with the greatest risk for severe weather within the slight risk area, with the green circle for this morning toward afternoon, and the orange from afternoon to evening today.

Concerning the DAY 2 Outlook, purple would be in the a.m. on Sunday, and I believe most of SC will be affected by afternoon to evening.

The Day 1 Outlook suggests that the main threat could be damaging thunderstorm winds, based on that this system should produce a more linear line of storms (Squall Line).  However, residents within the risk area and areas I have outlined, should any significant daytime heating occur, this would greatly enhance the risk of severe storms, and increase the risk for tornadic activity, albeit any stronger cells that may develop with rotation, could spawn a tornado or two.

Based on my analysis for Sunday, I feel the main threat could be north of the central FL. area, as model analysis does not indicate the strongest precip area this far south.  I do believe however that SPC is banking on the development of a possible Squall Line that may pass over the peninsula.  I do believe that by late afternoon, early evening that SC could take the brunt, based on model output this a.m.  I won’t have time in the a.m. to perform an analysis, but will try to post something in the afternoon.

Residents are urged to monitor local media and NWS, and my site here for current information, as the maps I post will update as you refresh the page.

SPC CURRENT CONVECTIVE WATCHES MAP

SPC CURRENT MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS MAP

  NWS HAZARDS AND WARNINGS DISPLAY

INTERACTIVE DOPPLER RADAR

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST/TROPICAL FORECASTER
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS 
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)

SEVERE WEATHER QUICK UPDATE…FEB. 17, 2012…ISSUED 8:15 A.M. EST

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT: SLIGHT
FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK:  NONE
TROPICAL STORM FORMATION: LOW (0%)
COASTAL STORM DEVELOPMENT: LOW

FEB. 17, 2012…QUICK UPDATE…ISSUED 8:15 A.M. EST

I will be out of the office today… however it appears I will be on this weekend.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC), Norman OK. has issued a SLIGHT risk for severe thunderstorms over portions of S. TX.

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

Residents in the area should monitor local media and NWS, and monitor NOAA Weather Radio.  Please visit my site often, as updated info on watches and warnings can be retrieved by refreshing the page.

The SPC has also indicated a SLIGHT risk of severe thunderstorms for Sat. and Sun.  I will post a full analysis tomorrow, and will try to have it out early.

SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

SPC DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

SPC CURRENT MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS DISPLAY

SPC CURRENT CONVECTIVE WATCHES DISPLAY

NWS HAZARDS AND WARNINGS DISPLAY (Click on your State)

“Storm”

Good morning all!

SEVERE WEATHER ANALYSIS…FEB. 16, 2012…ISSUED 11:10 A.M. EST

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT:TSTM
FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK:  NONE 
TROPICAL STORM FORMATION: LOW (0%)
COASTAL STORM DEVELOPMENT: LOW

Good day everyone!

For the next few days, there doesn’t seem to be any major changes to the pattern…with minimum temperatures mimicking the past few weeks.  Given this, today’s analysis / synopsis will focus on severe weather analysis.  You will also notice as well, as we get into March and onward, my focus will be directed at severe weather, and much less of winter conditions.

The Storm Prediction Center  (SPC), Norman, OK. does not indicate any severe weather threat during the next 48 hours.

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

The SPC is indicating a SLIGHT risk of severe thunderstorms Sat. and Sat. evening across much of the Central and Eastern Gulf states through the South Atlantic Coast states.

SPC CURRENT DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

An area of low pressure is forecast to develop along the Gulf Coastal area of Louisiana by Saturday.  Albeit SPC has indicated the severe risk to initiate Saturday morning, based on model analysis, the low doesn’t begin to deepen to nearer mid-day on Saturday, with most of the precipitation shield strengthening and being within the risk area AOA (At or About) 2:00 p.m. EST.  It is the opinion of this forecaster, hat anything significant would occur from this point on, into Sunday morning.  This low is forecast to eject off the SEUS coast and may become a coastal storm.

GFS MODEL ANALYSIS

Based on analysis of the Jetstream position and associated jetstreak, 850 and 500 mb vorticity maps, I believe the most likely area for severe weather could possibly occur within a little further northward boundary for the duration, as indicated by the blue outline I have drawn in:

I will be taking time off tomorrow, but will take another look at the situation early on Saturday morning.

Have  a great day.

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST/TROPICAL FORECASTER
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)