INVEST 94L FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED 10:45 A.M. EDT…OCT 24, 2014…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER

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Good day to everyone!

The remnant of Tropical Depression NINE was designated INVEST 94L yesterday.Based on information from the ATCF guidance product, the following information was available at 12Z on 94L:

LOCATED: 18.4N…87.5W
MAX WIND: 25 MPH
MOVEMENT: NE 9 MPH
PRESSURE: 1007 MB / 29.74 IN

Based on the motion over the past 12 hours, a slow NE motion is occurring.

Satellite loop imagery shows a small, somewhat sheared system, with convection located just to the east of the “center” of the INVEST.  The center will be moving over water within the next few hours.

INVEST 94L FLOATER SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

Deep layer shear at the moment indicates about 20 kts of wind shear from the SSW, which would be non conducive for development.  I do concur with the NHC in this has a very slim chance at regeneration, however it may take a shot prior to dry air intruding from the north, as analysis of the mid level wind shear map shows mid level shear to be non existent as of 12Z this morning.

CIMSS MID LEVEL SHEAR MAP

Based on analysis of current and forecast steering layers maps, the track on this is going to be one of two ways…94L will either be absorbed by the current stationary front and trof axis across the area, and continue off to the NE, or it will meander, as steering is currently weak in the area, and begin to head back toward the Yucatan peninsula in a few days as a ridge, with a flow oriented SSE to WNW builds north of the area.  The second solution appears to be what the dynamic guidance suggests at the moment.  The only guidance available was from the consensus models, which are generally the most accurate as far as track guidance.

12Z ATCF DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
94L DYNAMIC


Even if this occurs, the current wind shear forecast indicates an increase in wind shear over the area over the next 24 hours.

GFS WIND SHEAR FORECAST

Although regeneration is not expected, I will continue to monitor this area for any significant changes to the environment over the next 72 hours.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)

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