TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED SEP. 30, 2014…10:30 A.M. EDT…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER

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Good day everyone!

Not much going on this morning in the tropics, other than a bunch of leftover garbage moving eastward in the open Atlantic.

GOMEX SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

CARIBBEAN SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

CATL SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

Analysis of the Global Models this morning shows the GFS has once again backed off on the “ghost” system it had shown in the Caribbean previously, and the NCEP ESRL Ensemble no longer indicates significant lowering of 500 mb height anomalies.

We still have a stalled frontal boundary over the Florida peninsula, and into the Gulf of Mexico which should keep precipitation probabilities in the afternoon to the tune of greater than 40%.  I’ll be monitoring along the front for any mischief however over the next few days.

INTELLICAST SURFACE ANALYSIS MAP

If the tropics continue to remain quiet, I may begin issuing a severe weather synopsis along with the short, tropical brief.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)

Posted in Tropical Synopsis | 4 Comments