COASTAL / WINTER STORM FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED NOV. 26. 2014…10:00 A.M. EST

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Good day everyone!

The system that brought me 4.36″ of rainfall yesterday and early this morning, is moving quickly along the Eastern Seaboard.  By later this afternoon, this should be located off the Tidewater area.

NAM MODEL UPDATE
NAM.10mwind

U.S. EASTERN SATELLITE IMAGE LOOP

Analysis of Wave Watch / Stormsurf information still indicates  sustained winds near portions of the coastal areas, and especially offshore, could attain Tropical Storm force in excess of 40 – 45 mph.  I have no real change to the forecast, in that coastal flooding and beach erosion will occur.  I will not rule out some power outages due to the winds, and already soaked grounds from previous snowfall which has been melting over the past few days, as well as inland flooding due to the combination of rain associated with this system, and previous precipitation, which could topple power poles, or trees into power poles.

WW3 / STORMFURY WIND AND SEA HEIGHT

CAROLINA AREA

NEW JERSEY AREA

NEW ENGLAND AREA

As this moves further toward the north, rain will begin to turn to snow, and/or wintry precipitation, most likely around the 11:00 a.m. EST time period for the areas of W. VA., PA, and northward, with snowfall moving closer toward the coast.

The following maps are 48 hour snowfall accumulations from the GFS and NAM models:

GFS 48 HOUR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION FORECAST

GFS48snow

NAM 48 HOUR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION FORECAST
NAM48SNOW

Most of the U.S. will see freezing to below freezing minimum temperatures for Thanksgiving and Friday.

GFS MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST

NAM MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST

Residents along the Eastern Seaboard, Mid Atlantic, and New England areas should utilize the following graphics which are linked, to receive up to date information, including ANY NWS Statements and Warnings regarding this storm.  Please refresh this page in order to have the graphics update themselves.

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS DISPLAY

NWS HAZARDS DISPLAY

NWS DOPPLER RADAR

The office will be closed for the Thanksgiving holiday, and remainder of this week.

Happy Thanksgiving!

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)

Posted in COASTAL STORM SYNOPSIS, Winter | 6 Comments