ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER EVENT FORECAST BY THE SPC
Good afternoon!
The Storm Prediction Center has indicated a MODERATE risk of Severe Thunderstorms this afternoon and evening OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NEB…WESTERN KS…AND WESTERN OK…
…THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST…
…ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER EVENT EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF NEB/KS/OK LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING…
SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 – EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Soundings from around the moderate risk area indicated MLCAPE values ranging between 1800+ j/kg to 3600+ j/kg. Forecast SBCAPE values were ranging between 3800 – 5000 J/kg. This is an exceptional amount of Convective Available Potential Energy to be seen at 12Z. Lifted Indices were showing a strong amount of lift as well. Noted however, was a capping inversion at lower levels. However, daytime heating appears to be forecast to overcome the cap. With values and parameters indicated by SPC, and analysis of F5 Data Severe Weather Software, depending on where the cap breaks, and what time of day, the situation could get ugly. Based on this, and to err on the side of safety, I am issuing a PDS (Particularly Dangerous Situation) statement at this time, should these parameters hold and come to fruition. With the amount of lift and energy, VERY LARGE HAIL will most likely be encountered. Strong tornadoes of EF2 – EF5 cannot be ruled out over the entire moderate risk area.
Based on analysis of the F5 Data Severe Weather software, 3 models were analyzed, and a pretty close mean consensus indicates the greatest probability for significant severe weather to occur within the RED outlined areas, and strong tornadic activity within the PINK hatched areas. Albeit the SPC Outlook map doesn’t indicate severe for TX, all 3 models analyzed placed a risk over the area of TX outlined. Whether this comes to fruition remains to be seen.
Residents in the risk area, both MODERATE and SLIGHT, should closely monitor this situation today and tonight, and monitor NOAA Weather Radio, and local NWS office statements and warnings.
SPC CONVECTIVE WATCHES MAP
SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS MAP
NWS HAZARDS AND WARNINGS MAP…CLICK ON YOUR AREA
INTELLICAST NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP…INTERACTIVE
Please stay safe, and have a blessed Saturday!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)
CoCoRaHS OBSERVER
