MAJOR HURRICANE GONZALO NEARING BERMUDA / PROBABLE GOMEX DEVELOPMENT FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED OCT. 17, 2014…12:10 P.M. EDT…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER

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Good day everyone!

Hurricane GONZALO is approaching Bermuda at a faster speed this morning.  Some weakening has occurred, an d this may be the beginning of his weakening trend.  The following was available on GONZALO as of the 11:00 a.m. EDT advisory from the NHC in Miami:

11:00 AM AST Wed Oct 17
Location: 30.4°N 66.1°W
Moving: NNE at 16 mph
Min pressure: 947 mb / 27.97 in
Max sustained: 125 mph
CATEGORY: 3

HURREVAC NHC GONZALO TRACKING MAP PRODUCTS
HURREVAC GONZALO

HURREVAC GONZALO CLOSE

GONZALO has apparently begun a weakening trend, as he is now moving over cooler sst’s, and is now in an area where SW shear has increased somewhat.  Regardless, THIS IS STILL A DANGEROUS HURRICANE, and should maintain Category 3 status as it passes Bermuda.  Based on current and forecast wind shear products, and analysis of sst’s, I concur with the NHC intensity forecast.

NHC INTENSITY FORECAST

INIT  17/1500Z 30.4N  66.1W  110 KT 125 MPH
 12H  18/0000Z 32.6N  64.9W  100 KT 115 MPH
 24H  18/1200Z 36.3N  62.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  19/0000Z 41.5N  58.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  19/1200Z 48.0N  49.0W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  20/1200Z 55.0N  25.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  21/1200Z...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

The following is the NHC Public Advisory regarding Hurricane GONZALO:

NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY

000
WTNT33 KNHC 171454
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GONZALO ADVISORY NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014
1100 AM AST FRI OCT 17 2014

...EYE OF HURRICANE GONZALO ON BERMUDA RADAR...
...DAMAGING WINDS AND A LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE EXPECTED LATER
TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.4N 66.1W
ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 18
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION THIS MORNING.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA ...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE GONZALO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.1 WEST. GONZALO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H. A CONTINUED
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE EYE OF
GONZALO WILL BE NEAR BERMUDA EARLY THIS EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 125 MPH...205
KM/H. GONZALO IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE.   SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST TODAY...BUT
GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO BE A DANGEROUS HURRICANE WHEN IT MOVES NEAR
OR OVER BERMUDA. FASTER WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TONIGHT ONCE
GONZALO MOVES OVER COOL WATERS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER
PLANE WAS 947 MB...27.97 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH BERMUDA LATER
TODAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WIND SPEEDS ATOP AND ON THE WINDWARD SIDES OF
HILLY TERRAIN ARE OFTEN UP TO 30 PERCENT STRONGER THAN AT THE
SURFACE...AND IN SOME ELEVATED LOCATIONS CAN BE EVEN GREATER.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IN BERMUDA. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE
WAVES.

RAINFALL...GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER BERMUDA.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE NORTHERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS...PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...AND BERMUDA. SWELLS WILL
SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST TODAY. THESE SWELLS WILL
LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. FOR
MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

Analysis of current satellite loop imagery, current and forecast steering layers maps, GONZALO appears to have shifted slightly east at the moment.  However analyzing the steering flow, especially in satellite loop imagery of various channels, GONZALO has moved a little more on an ENE motion, but will most likely make a direct strike on the island of Bermuda.  residents of the island should have preparations complete, and taking shelter as best to their ability.  THIS IS A DANGEROUS HURRICANE.  Analysis of all parameters indicate the forecast from the NHC should be pretty much the course of what should occur.

GONZALO FLOATER SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY


EASTERN SATELLITE LOOP

DOPPLER RADAR FROM BERMUDA  ( Courtesy, Brian McNoldy, Univ. of Miami, Rosenstiel School).

Prayers from this office are with those on the island of Bermuda.  I will not have another update until possibly late Sunday, or Monday a.m.

Elsewhere, some of the Global Models have lost interest, however I am still looking at the probability of development in the GOMEX / BOC area in the next few days.  Based on analysis of Global Models this morning, and the forecast steering maps, valid for 12Z (8:00 a.m.) this morning, the system in the EPAC is forecast to track toward the NW over the next few days, and then be turned toward the east, entering the GOMEX.  Based on forecast steering, we could most likely look for this to begin sometime on Tuesday.

GFS

CMC

NAVGEM

ECMWF

The current wind shear forecast indicates that upper level winds should be somewhat conducive for development of this area.  Forecast motion is not being factored at the moment, until I see some type of development, as models are split as to what really happens to this as far as a forecast track, should development occur.  Just know that I am on it and will be monitoring the GOMEX closely over the next 5 – 7 days.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)

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